The article that I chose for this week's topic is called China's Great Uprooting. In the article, the author sheds some light on China's recent push towards urbanization. The Chinese government is moving an astonishing 250,000,000 people to new urban centers that it has created in an effort to speed up the urbanization process. That number of people nearly equals the population of the United States, and these are just rural citizens! There are already many massive urban centers within China to begin with.
The thought process behind this push for urbanization is two-fold. On one hand, if this large number of people becomes urban, then growth will inevitably follow due to the sheer number of people that will need goods and services in these urban centers. On the other hand, China's economy is based on domestic trade, and for domestic trade to flourish, it needs to have demand. By creating these centers that contain millions of people, China's government hopes that there will be large amounts of population growth that will increase demand for it's countries domestically produced goods.
The topic for the week is Human security and failed states. The Failed States Index has China listed as a 'critical' state, ranked at number 66. But is it really in such dire straights? I do not believe so. China's situation is certainly not ideal, with half the world's population, and about half of it still considered rural. The country is taking a gamble that it can create massive growth by forcing its population to migrate to these urban centers. This endeavor can really only end two ways, either it works or it doesn't. I would consider China to be more in the category of 'boarderline' at present. The country has a growing economy, is secure, and has a government that can function day to day. One area where China falls short is in the area of providing basic services for it's people. There are millions of people who live in horrid conditions within China, and often times the Chinese government overlooks human rights issues within its own boarders and abroad, but to me it does not seem to be anywhere near 'critical.'
Perhaps if it fails its ambitious project to accelerate the urbanization process, then I would consider it to be in more of a 'critical' position, as their finances will certainly struggle and with it the economy would turn for the worse and the people would turn on their government. The fact that China is considered to be critical in the FSI discredits the map to me somewhat. If we are trying to discern what states are 'failed' there surely must be a distinction between states like China, who I would consider 'flawed but functional,' and a 'failed' state such as Somalia. They are both considered 'critical' by the FSI, and even though they are 65 spots apart, surely they do not merit the same ranking. Seeing China ranked this way made me recall the 'Rethinking Failed States' video that we watched this week, when one of their viewers brought up the fact that states with western ideals seem to have a more stable ranking than states with other ideology. Perhaps there is some truth to that observation?
Yes, I agree... it's extremely interesting to see China's susceptibility to state failure ranked in a "critical state" by FP/FFP. I remember that quote from the 'Rethinking Failed States' too, and couldn't help but laugh when one the guests on the show mentioned that the head of the CIA was present at the index's inauguration. It is odd that the FFP has a copyright on the data, and that they bypass local country experts in collecting it. It's crazy to me that Pakistan is ranked 13th! I particularly enjoyed contemplating the sentiment that the index's methodology is based off conflict assessment framework created over 20 years ago by the FFP... lol, as if that's a good thing.
ReplyDeleteI also found it interesting that China was so high on the failed states list. Their economy has grown so fast and so much has been said on how quickly their approaching the United States in terms of global power. However, I think some of the reason it ended up on this list is because it is still an autocratic country, which is taboo among people in the U.S. government. This might have some merit, because in history very few if any autocratic states have sustained growth and security. So maybe the country is on the verge of failing, especially since all their wealth is going to the rich few and not the poor masses.
ReplyDeleteI also agree that it is ridiculous to have countries like the DRC and Somalia lumped in with countries like Russia and China. It makes their ranking of "critical" hold almost no merit to me. It seems everybody but America and western Europe is critical.
So, to play devil's advocate for a minute, I will point out that China's color on the map is wrong based on its actual category, so perhaps its not entirely lumped in with say the DRC.
ReplyDeleteHowever, there are scholars worried that an authoritarian country is inherently unstable and could face greater problems- plus the concerns of demographic pressures (1/6th of the population) and public services, as highlighted in this post is part of the concern of the FSI.
China grew quickly from nothing. The economy can surge in those few years, but not their way of government.
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