Egypt's Revolution

Egypt’s Revolution

After last year’s revolution in Egypt, the transition has been anything but smooth, culminating in the military coup that occurred on July 3^rd.  After the Arab Spring, the country held an election to determine its new leader. However, the election was only representative of the Muslim Brotherhood, and therefore “democratically” elected Muhammad Morsi. In the aftermath, the military coup remains in power, but the struggle for who will assume power after the revolution remains a highly contentious matter.

Profile of a weak state: Egypt

Ranking 34^th in the failed states index, Egypt seems rather out of place among countries this high, as it has been considered a fairly developed and established nation. Where the rank worst among the criteria laid out by the FSI is in human rights and deligitimization of the state. The first, human rights, is an essential indicator of how effective the government is at serving and protecting its people and supplying them with a environment conducive to development and growth. The second reflects how poorly run the government has been and how poorly it is viewed by the public. Egypt’s rating being so bad, an 8.9, this shows that the people have almost completely lost faith in the government’s ability to operate effectively. It’s hard to argue with them, as their elected president lasted only around a year. In these senses, it’s clear why Egypt is considered a failing state.

According to the Economist The clash between Morsi supporters and more liberal Egyptians is leading to rising tensions between the groups. Morsi supporters are refusing to accept anything less than the reinstatement of the former president. These same people are becoming fearful for their livelihood if any other outcome occurs, and have been actively protesting ever since the coup. A shooting on July 8^th worsened relations between the two groups as both sides blame the other for the tragedy. However, the security forces throughout the city of Cairo have been glaringly one-sided against the Muslim Brotherhood. In retaliation, members of the Brotherhood are now starting an uprising of the current government, primarily around General Abdel Fattah al-Sis, the man who started the military coup.

As for how Egypt restructures after the coup, a new legislation and constitution must be drawn up, as well as setup institutions to elect and appoint new leadership, more representative of the people. It seems almost inevitable that the new leadership will be anti-Muslim and pro-liberal, so it remains to be seen if this new government will withstand the feud between the two groups. Obviously for Egypt to recover and establish a secure government, it will be important to get the two sides to find some common ground, however difficult that may be. Currently, the appointed interim president and prime minister are completely ineffective in taming the anger from the Muslim Brotherhood, as they continue to reject any proposals set forth. Additionally, Egypt must fix its human rights problem, and fast. A country as developed and established as Egypt should not have human rights problems, and this will continue to drag down the well being of the state until a solution is found. However, it can’t be ignored that this is all assuming the transition of power from the military back to the government and people goes smoothly. In history, military regimes have not always relinquished power so easily. If there is too much delay in the transition, it could pose as very bad news for the future of Egypt. While al-Sisi says he’s looking forward to stepping down, in a country with so much turmoil, it can never be assumed anything will happen for sure.

As Egypt moves forward from the immediate catastrophe following the Arab Spring, it will be important to follow what steps are taken to achieve a legitimate government, and how effective these actions are. Egypt could lay a very loose guideline for achieving a stable state from a disastrous situation.